More recently, small North Korean submarines and high-speed semi-submersible infiltration craft have been discovered in South Korean waters, apparently involved in spy operations. It is the common belief in Seoul that these intrusions have been going on more or less continuously since 1953.
The confrontation last week in the Yellow Sea was quite a different matter. Large patrol boats of both Koreas clashed over access to a rich crab-fishing area close to the Northern Limit Line (NLL), a seaward extension of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) arbitrarily drawn by the United Nations Command in 1953. The NLL is not formally included in the Armistice Agreement, and has never been accepted by North Korea. In some places the NLL lies within the 12-mile territorial sea claimed by North Korea. Over the years it has been the scene of many naval clashes, but none as serious as this recent episode.
During the early days of the crisis, President Kim Dae Jung was criticized by the opposition party for not responding more forcefully to the Northern incursions. His “sunshine policy” of engagement with the North also came in for strong partisan abuse. These shrill voices are calling for an end to South Korean tourism in North Korea, and a cessation of food aid to the starving Northerners. President Kim’s response was to say he was as determined as ever to establish better relations with the North. And from an American perspective, no South Korean leader has ever mustered a stronger stand against North Korean aggression.
From the day of his inauguration, President Kim said his North Korea policy would be based on three principles: zero tolerance for North Korean provocations, no effort to either absorb or undermine the Pyongyang regime, and a sincere effort to establish better relations with North Korea. His performance in last week’s dangerous episode was consistent with these principles. He ordered his naval units not to allow intrusions into South Korean waters, but also not to fire first. The Navy followed orders perfectly, and inflicted a stinging defeat on the North. Then Kim quickly reaffirmed the “sunshine policy,” showing he is also serious about diplomacy with Pyongyang.
President Kim had prepared to act decisively by establishing the best working relations any South Korean president has ever enjoyed with his often difficult neighbors. He has made successful state visits to Tokyo, and to Beijing and Moscow, both former patrons of Pyongyang. Kim’s diplomacy paid off following the sea fight: Japan expressed strong backing for his stand, and Beijing and Moscow called on both Koreas to avoid further violence. No other South Korean president has been able to operate from such a position of strength. Conversely, North Korea’s weakness and isolation has never been more apparent.
In the United States, it is not yet clear how this incident will play out. Republicans in Congress are skeptical of engagement with North Korea, and deride President Clinton for rewarding the “bad behavior” of the North Koreans. The Republicans are also anxious about the offer former Secretary of Defense William Perry recently delivered to Pyongyang, which reportedly would lift American sanctions if North Korea abandons foreign missile sales and nuclear weapons development. It is probable the more partisan Republicans will cast North Korea’s naval attack last week as a dismissive response to Perry’s peace mission, and proof that force is the only policy Pyongyang understands.
North Korea’s hostile behavior may seem to bear out this thesis, but it’s not quite that simple. North Korea is opening as never before to South Korean diplomats, tourists and businessmen, including 16 Samsung executives who arrived only hours after the sea clash. Taken individually, these are minor concessions. Together, they indicate that North Korea is willing to consider change, when it sees change working to its benefit. This is the essence of President Kim’s “sunshine policy.” It requires patience, strength and confidence, qualities President Kim has now demonstrated in abundance.
