The immediate political impact was lessened by the court’s unexpected affirmation of Roe v. Wade. If Roe had been overturned, George Bush would have taken the heat. “We spent months expecting a nuclear blast; then a hand grenade went off,” said a Bush campaign aide. But the issue will be back, and in a three-way race, Bush’s pro-life position could determine his political future. Just before the GOP convention this summer, the Democratic-controlled Congress is expected to pass a Freedom of Choice Act that will bar states from further restricting access to abortion. The bill should be on Bush’s desk in the fall, where it will await his veto and remind voters of the difference between him and his pro-choice opponents.
Congress does not have the votes to override Bush’s veto on abortion rights. But if Bush is re-elected, it is probably only a matter of time. The next Congress will have more than 100 new faces. There will be more women, more minorities and more pro-choicers. Most challengers for Congress in both parties are outspokenly pro-choice. Senate races in California and Illinois already have strong pro-choice women running this fall against men who oppose abortion rights or who are recent converts, and similar contests are expected in New York and Washington. The pattern is repeated in countless House races. “When you talk about the potential of electing 15 new women to the House of Representatives, there’s your override right there,” says Jane Danowitz, of the Women’s Campaign Fund.
Differences over abortion will be highlighted at the GOP convention in Houston this August. Increasingly vocal pro-choice women are defying the longstanding choke hold that the religious right has maintained on the party. “I’d rather have [Sandra Day] O’Connor and [David] Souter write our platform than [Phyllis] Schlafly and [Pat] Robertson,” says Ann Stone, founder of Republicans for Choice. Pro-life activists are furious at Bush for blowing the opportunity to appoint the deciding vote on Roe to the court. Former chief of staff John Sununu had told conservatives that Bush hit a “home run” with Souter, a metaphor intended as assurance he was opposed to abortion. Now the right will try to trade its support for a stronger commitment from Bush on future appointments.
How all this plays is hard to prediet in a three-way race. Bush can’t afford to alienate pro-life voters, who gain importance in a fractured electorate. But Bush also needs the support of suburban GOP women, who polls show are unsettled by his position on abortion. These women could find a comfort level with Ross Perot, who is pro-choice. Democratic polltaker Geoff Garin predicts abortion will become “a reference point” on how a candidate feels about women’s role in society, privacy issues and “whether you understand what the modern world is all about.”
Bill Clinton argues that a pro-choice Democratic president is a woman’s best friend. He will raise the specter of a court stacked with anti-abortion Reagan-Bush appointees. Walter Mondale in ‘84 and Michael Dukakis in ‘88 each drew the same dire picture, but it was an abstraction that never caught on with voters. This year could be different. With Justice Harry Blackmun’s poignant warning that, at 83, he cannot hang on forever, the challenge has greater immediacy. So many political careers are at stake that candidates on both sides of the issue are counting on the voters for a clearer decision than the one handed down by the court.
